DIY Guide Presidential Election – 13 Keys to the White House 2024 by Allan Lichtman – Final Prediction

By Björn-Michael Lange

 

Who will win the White House in 2024?

This article¹ is based on the 13 Keys to the White House, a model developed by Professor Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981², as a do-it-yourself-guide for predicting the Electoral College outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.³ Lichtman himself encourages anyone to apply his 13 keys, but it is essential to adhere strictly to his definitions for each key.

This prediction assumes that the 2024 U.S. presidential election will be fair and secure, with the will of the voters preserved, free from attempts to disrupt the certification process at the county level.⁴

To clarify: this is a prediction of who will win the Electoral College and become the next President of the United States. It does not forecast which states will be won or by what margin.

Why Choose Allan Lichtman´s 13 Keys to the White House Model?

The answer is straightforward: Allan Lichtman is the Michael Jordan of presidential forecasting.⁵ Or perhaps it´s more accurate to say that Michael Jordan is the Allan Lichtman of basketball.⁶ Simply put, Lichtman is the best in the field, by far, and the gap isn´t even close. His 13 keys model boasts the most accurate and enduring track record of any forecasting system.⁷ He has accurately forecasted the outcome of every presidential election from 1984 to 2020, maintaining a perfect 10-for-10 record.⁸ In contrast, other models fall short. Helmuth Norpoth´s model, for instance, failed spectacularly in 2020⁹, and Nate Silver´s approach, which missed Trump´s 2016 victory¹⁰, is fundamentally flawed as a prediction tool because it relies heavily on polls-polls that can be misleading or prone to error.

The Importance of Understanding How the System Works

Lichtman and Keilis-Borok reconceptualized American presidential elections through the lens of geophysics. They viewed elections as either a state of stability, where the White House party retains power, or an earthquake, where the ruling party is ousted. Their analysis, employing the mathematical method of pattern recognition, spanned every election from 1860 to 1980. Lichtman emphasizes that the keys are not subjective interpretations but are rooted in careful objective judgment.¹¹

The keys to the White House are formulated as conditions that favor the reelection of the incumbent party. If five or fewer of these conditions are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win. Conversely, if six or more of these conditions are unmet, the incumbent party will face defeat. Each key holds equal weight and functions as a binary choice; for instance, the party in power cannot count multiple foreign policy victories to run the “foreign policy success” key true more than once. The keys are simply either true or false, with no room for nuance.

It is important to note that the threshold for each key is deliberately set high, and Lichtman is notably conservative when it comes to turning any of them.¹²

Party Mandate: False

Key 1 Incumbent-party mandate: This key considers whether the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm elections than it did following the previous midterms.¹³

The Democratic Party won 213 in 2022¹⁴, down from 235 in 2018¹⁵. Clearly, this key is false.

Party Battle Key: True

Key 2: Nomination contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.¹⁶ This key is relevant only to the party currently holding the White House. To satisfy this key, the candidate from the White House party must secure at least two-thirds of the delegates´ votes on the first ballot.¹⁷

Harris won 99 percent of participating delegates¹⁸, so this key is true.

Incumbency Key: False

Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.¹⁹

After Biden stepped down from the candidacy on July 21²⁰, the incumbent-party candidate is no longer the sitting president, which clearly turns this key false.

No Third Party: True

Key 4 Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.²¹

Lichtman applies a specific definition to this key, which is the only one dependent on polls. It is triggered if a major third-party candidate garners more than 5 % of the vote, with the key indicator being that they stabilize at or above 10 % in polls close to the election. Lichtman also factors in the “wasted third-party votes syndrome” and his “rule of halves”, noting the third-party candidates typically poll at double their final result.²²

Kennedy remained below the 10 % threshold while Biden was still in the race and saw his support quickly diminish after Biden withdrew. On Friday, August 23, Kennedy exited the race and endorsed Trump.²³ Will that help Trump? Definitely not.²⁴ Historically, strong third-party candidates tend to spell bad news for the party holding the White House. As a result, this key turned definitively true²⁵, as other minor third-party candidates, like Jill Stein or Cornel West, are not significant enough, polling at averages of 0.8 and 0.6 percent, respectively.²⁶

Short-term Economy Key: True

Key 5 Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.²⁷

Has the Bureau of Economic analysis declared a recession, typically defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth?²⁸ The answer is a clear no.²⁹ GDP growth in the first quarter was 1,4 % followed by a robust 2,8 % in the second quarter, well above the expected 2.0 %.³⁰ The Atlanta Fed Nowcast as of August 16 of August projects a solid 2.0 % growth for the third quarter.³¹ In early August 2024 the Bank of America retracked its forecast for a recession in the US this year.³² The Federal Reserve has also signaled a rate cut in September and remains optimistic in avoiding a recession.³³ The data unequivocally show that the U.S. economy is not in a recession.

Long-term Economy Key: True

Key 6 Long-term economy: Real annual per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms.³⁴

Economic growth during Biden´s full term has significantly outpaced the average growth seen during the previous two administrations from 2012-2020.³⁵ This key is straightforward and clearly turns true for the party holding the White House.

Policy Change Key: True

Key 7 Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.³⁶

This key examines whether the incumbent administration has enacted major changes in national policy. It can be realized in two ways: either through a significant departure from the previous administration’s policies or through a truly historic shift, akin to the New Deal or Ronald Reagan´s conservative revolution.³⁷

The Biden administration, through executive orders³⁸ and landmark legislation such as the American Rescue Plan of 2021³⁹, the bipartisan infrastructure package⁴⁰, the Chips and Science Act⁴¹, and the Inflation Reduction Act⁴² has fundamentally altered the policies from the previous administration. These changes span immigration, infrastructure, abortion, economic policies, climate⁴³ health, taxes and gun control⁴⁴.

No Social Unrest: True

Key 8 There is no sustained social unrest during the term- to be more specific, there is no unrest that would threaten the social order or stability of the country⁴⁵. Like all the other keys, this one also has a high threshold.

While there were sporadic protests at major universities in the spring of 2024 against the war in Gaza⁴⁶, these demonstrations were limited to a small minority of students, remained largely peaceful⁴⁷, and quickly dissipated without gaining broader recognition or support. Unlike in 1968, there was no explosion of violence at the democratic convention.⁴⁸ Therefore, this key remains true for the Democrats and Harris.

Scandal Key: True

Key 9 Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. For this key to turn false, there must be corruption directly involving the president and bipartisan recognition of the scandal.⁴⁹

The impeachment effort against Biden collapsed⁵⁰, after the “star witness” was found to have lied to the FBI and admitted to ties with Russian intelligence.⁵¹ As a result, this key remains true.

No Major Foreign/Military Failure: False

Key 10 Foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.⁵² For this key to turn false, the failure must be a significant and highly publicized event, far beyond the day-to-day challenges of governance.⁵³

The ongoing war in Gaza, with military support from the United States, has lead to a humanitarian crises that has dominated national headlines for 10 consecutive months⁵⁴. If the Biden administration can successfully broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, along with a hostage release this key could potentially turn true, depending on the specifics. As the election approaches, there remains some potential upside for the Democrats here. However, as of now, the situation in Gaza constitutes a foreign/military failure.

Major Foreign/Military Success: False

Key 11 Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.⁵⁵

The war in Ukraine has thus far proven to be ongoing, without a decisive victory. While Ukraine secured significant battlefield successes in 2022, the conflict has since devolved into a gruesome stalemate. The major Ukrainian incursions into Russia´s Kursk and Belgorod regions⁵⁶ might have the potential to disrupt Russian rail logistics,⁵⁷ potentially leading to a breakdown in Russian military operations on the eastern front in Kharkiv and Luhansk. In the next 11 weeks leading up to the election, Ukraine could potentially achieve a victory against Russia, which could turn this key true⁵⁸. This outcome hinges on the success of a strike on the Kerch Bridge, severing Russian logistics to the southern front. Thus, there remains significant upside for Harris´s candidacy regarding this key. However, as of August 25, 2024, this key remains false.

Incumbent Charisma: False

Key 12 Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.⁵⁹ To fulfill this criterion, the candidate must be a once-in-a-generation, broadly appealing, and inspirational figure.⁶⁰

Harris´s net approval rating has significantly improved since the Democratic Party rallied around her candidacy.⁶¹ However, before this, she was considered one of the most, if not the most unpopular vice presidents in U.S. history.⁶² Despite her recent gains, she does not possess the broad appeal of a Franklin Delano Roosevelt or a John F. Kennedy, a Ronald Reagan with Reagan Democrats, or a Barack Obama in 2008.

Challenger Charisma: True

Key 13 Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.⁶³

Under Trump, the Republicans lost the presidency in 2020⁶⁴, the house in 2018⁶⁵ and the Senate in 2020⁶⁶ – the worst political performance for an incumbent Republican president since 1932. He is the only president in U.S. history to be impeached twice⁶⁷, indicted four times,⁶⁸ and convicted once, making him the first former U.S. president with a felony conviction.⁶⁹ Additionally, he is the oldest candidate in US history.⁷⁰ His net favorability ratings have been consistently low for years.⁷¹

Donald Trump has never had broad appeal; there are no “Trump Democrats”.⁷² While he is charismatic within his base⁷³, this does not meet the high threshold of a broadly appealing candidate. Did the assassination attempt change that? The clear answer is no. Donald Trump has not shifted from his “us against them” approach to politics, which Timothy Snyder refers to as “the politics of eternity”.⁷⁴

Which Elections might be Comparable to the 2024 Election with Biden Out and Harris Running?

The elections of 1868⁷⁵, 1908⁷⁶, 1928⁷⁷, 1988⁷⁸ and 2000⁷⁹ come to mind. In each of these elections, no incumbent was running and the party holding the White House was united behind a consensus candidate. In 1988 and 2000 these candidates were long-serving vice presidents, George H.W. Bush and Al Gore respectively. In 1868 the party holding the White House, was down 2 keys; in 1908 and in both 1928 and 1988 the incumbent party was down 3 keys. In 2000 the incumbent Democrats were down five keys but still won the popular vote, and if the will of the voters had been honored, Gore would have also won Florida and the Electoral College.⁸⁰

How have Parties – Holding the White House – Performed historically, when they`ve Lost Both Foreign Policy Keys?

Short answer: They have always lost. It happened four times since 1956⁸¹ – each time resulting in defeat. It occurred in 1960, 1968, 1976 and 2008. However, the 2024 presidential election is poised to break this trend. Despite losing both foreign policy keys, the 13 keys predict that the Democrats will prevail, making this the first time an incumbent party overcomes such a historical disadvantage. There´s even a possibility that they could turn around one or both keys before the election.

What about Special Key “Nuggets”?

Among the 13 Keys to the White House, keys 2 and 5 stand out with the highest predictive accuracy. Key 2 has the highest prediction rate of all, with an 87 % accuracy overall, reflecting an 85 % win rate and a 92 % loss rate. Key 5 follows closely with an 82 % overall prediction rate, including a 79 % win rate and a 100 % loss rate.⁸²

Historically, when both Key 2 and Key 5 are true, the party holding the White House has won the popular vote 22 out of 22 times and secured the Electoral College in 20 of those instances, with the only exceptions being the elections of 1888 and 2000.

It´s worth noting that if Key 2 and/or Key 5 are false, this has historically explained 18 out of 19 popular vote outcomes (with 1880 as the lone exception) and 17 out of 18 Electoral College results, with the disputed election of 1876 as the only anomaly.

With both keys definitively true for the Democrats in the 2024 presidential race, the outlook for Harris in the Electoral College is significantly bolstered.

Final Key Prediction: Harris will Win the Electoral College and Become the 47th President of the United States

With five keys negative against the Democrats and Harris´s candidacy – Key 1, Key 3, Key 10, Key 11, and Key 12 – the party holding the White House is predicted to retain it.

To be clear, this is a prediction, not an endorsement: The 13 Keys to the White House indicate a Kamala Harris victory in the Electoral College in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Kamala Harris is predicted to be sworn in as the 47^th President of the United States on January 20, 2025.

About the Author:

Björn-Michael Lange is a partner at Vy Rechtsanwälte. His practice covers finance, capital markets, labor, litigation and corporate law.