DIY Guide Presidential Election – The 13 Keys to the White House by Allan Lichtman

By Björn-Michael Lange

Significance of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

The United States of America remain, by any measure, the most powerful nation on earth. Despite having just over 4 percent of the world´s population¹, it accounts for 26.3 percent of the Global GDP², 32 percent of the world’s liquid investable assets³ and nearly 40 percent of global military spending as of 2023.⁴ The U.S. president is, simply put, the most powerful person in the world.

The Stakes of the Trump-Biden Rematch Could Not Be Higher

The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election could be the most consequential one since 1860. Former President Trump is making unprecedented statements,⁵ and his plans would fundamentally alter American democracy.⁶ The outcome of this election is of utmost importance to the U.S. American people and their allies worldwide.⁷ It will determine the future of U.S. democracy and the rule of law, the timing and extent of further military aid to Ukraine and Israel, and the U.S. military posture in the Pacific. The election will also shape the future of NATO⁸ and of European security, considering the roughly 100,000 U.S. troops stationed in Europe.⁹

From a German perspective, and for German lawyers advising on US-European and US-German trade matters, the significance of this election is evident. In the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. became Germany´s largest trading partner, overtaking China, which has held this position for the past eight years.¹⁰

Do it Yourself Guide: The Keys to the White House

This article uses the “Keys to the White House” system developed by Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981 as a “do-it-yourself guide” to assess the status of the keys at the beginning of May 2024.¹¹ This is not a final forecast, but a preliminary one. Allan Lichtman published a version himself in February of 2024¹² and has given several recent interviews with updates and his opinion on the Keys´ status as of early May 2024.¹³ This preliminary forecast is based on the premise, that the 2024 presidential election will be as fair and secure as the 2020 election, which was rightly called the safest presidential election in U.S. history.¹⁴ With the passage of the electoral Count Reform Act¹⁵, and the virtual absence of voter fraud, the 2024 presidential election is expected to be free, fair, and as secure as possible.¹⁶

Allan Lichtman’s Impeccable Track Record

Allan Lichtman is the Nostradamus of election forecasters.¹⁷ He has made ten predictions for the U.S. presidential elections and all ten have been correct.¹⁸ He often makes his calls very early; for instance, he predicted the hard-to-call 2012 presidential election in July of 2010.¹⁹ He also accurately predicted the 2016 election for former President Trump in September 2016.²⁰ The only controversy arose with the infamous 2000 election (the first divergence between the popular vote and the electoral college since 1888). Lichtman correctly predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote, which he did by a margin of over 500,000 votes. However, the Supreme Court stopped the recount with Bush leading by 537 votes in Florida out of nearly 6 million votes cast in the state, in a highly controversial 5-4 decision along partisan lines.²¹ The will of the voters in Florida was clear, favoring Gore´s victory. One out of every nine votes cast by African-American voters, who overwhelmingly voted for the Democratic Party candidate, was discarded, compared to only one out of every fifty votes cast by white voters, wo are more evenly divided. As Lichtman correctly stated, “Gore should have won going away”.²²

What Are the Polls Saying Right Now?

The national polls and the average polls, especially in the seven swing states that will decide the election (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina), all look unfavorable for Biden.²³ However, at this early stage, they have zero value, particularly zero predictive value. Essentially, polls are worthless at this point and have often been significantly inaccurate before the 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2022 elections.

What About Joe Biden´s Net Approval Rating?

Joe Biden´s net approval rating is one of the lowest in modern U.S. history.²⁴ Is his re-election bid doomed? Lichtman repeatedly emphasizes: “The U.S. presidential election is a vote up or down on the strengths and performance of the party holding the White House.”²⁵ There may be a small correlation between approval ratings and reelection chances just before an election, but in Lichtman´s system, a president´s approval rating is not a key. Therefore, we should not dwell on Biden´s ratings, which can, of course, change in any direction before the election.

What About Polls and Punditry in General?

As Allen Lichtman always says: polls are snapshots.²⁶ Keep your eye on the big picture, forget the polls, forget the pundits²⁷, forget the handlers, and the hucksters. Presidential elections are referenda on the strength and performance of the party holding the White House.²⁸ The most important thing to do as a prognosticator is to keep your personal politics out of it. And one more thing: “it is governing, not campaigning that counts”.²⁹

So, let´s get to it.

How does the system work?

The system works as follows: “The Keys to the White House are stated as conditions that favor reelection of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the incumbent party loses”³⁰.

Where Do the 13 Keys to the White House Stand six Months before the U.S. Presidential Election?

Party Mandate: False

“Key 1 Incumbent-party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.³¹”

The Democratic Party won fewer seats in the 2022 midterms³² (213 seats) than in the 2018 midterms³³ (235 seats). This Key has turned irreversibly against Biden. However,  Key 1 has the second lowest predictive value against the White House party (with only a 54 percent loss rate).³⁴ Historically, it is perfectly normal for the party holding the White House to lose seats in the midterm elections.

No Primary Contest: True

“Key 2 Nomination contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.³⁵”

Biden has not been seriously challenged for his party´s nomination. He will receive a large majority of the delegates at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. He has “locked in” this Key. This Key has the highest overall prediction rate.³⁶

Incumbent Seeking Re-election: True

“Key 3: Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.³⁷”

Biden is running for re-election. The incumbency win rate is 74 percent.³⁸

No Third Party: Shaky but Leaning Towards Biden

“Key 4 Third party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.³⁹”

The rule is that a significant third-party candidacy signals discontent with the party holding the White House.⁴⁰ A candidate polling at ten percent or more (close to the election) might get more than 5 percent as an actual result. As of May 11^th, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy jr. is at 10.0 percent  in the FiveThirtyEight polling average⁴¹ and at 10.8 percent in the RealClearPolitics polling average.⁴² Usually, third-party candidates poll much higher than the actual votes they end up getting. And it is questionable whether Kennedy Jr. will get on all the ballots, so he may just fizzle out as the election approaches.⁴³ His own revelation, that a worm ate parts of his brain⁴⁴ may not help his campaign. It could even lead to a split in the opposition party, as the Trump camp is already getting nervous about this prospect⁴⁵ and is directing personal attacks against Robert F. Kennedy Jr.⁴⁶

The last two times there was a significant third-party candidacy against a sitting president were in 1992 and 1996 (Ross Perot). Both the George H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations failed to achieve significant domestic policy success (Key 7, see below). Therefore, the current situation is not comparable to 1992 and 1996, considering that Bush Sr. even faced a (perceived) recession in the election year and lost Key 5. Another significant third-party candidacy occurred in the 1980 election against Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter, with the candidacy of John Anderson.⁴⁷ However, Carter was challenged by Ted Kennedy for the Democratic nomination (losing Key 2), had no domestic accomplishments, (losing Key 7), and faced an election-year recession (losing Key 5), making the 1980 situation also incomparable to Biden´s position in May 2024.

The only historical comparison might be 1948, but the third-party threat to Harry Truman came from two different factions of his own party. In modern history, 1948 is the only election where a sitting president ran without losing the party battle key, had a domestic accomplishment, no recession in the election year, and lost the third-party key. With the Democratic Party united behind President Biden, this also suggests that Kennedy´s candidacy is likely to fizzle out as we get closer to the 2024 election.

Strong Short-term Economy: Tilt Toward Biden

“Key 5 Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.⁴⁸”

The economy is growing at a healthy rate⁴⁹, with unemployment below 4 percent for the longest time since the late 1960s⁵⁰ and consumer confidence at 77 points in April, although it fell in May⁵¹ (in a preliminary version). Inflation has significantly decreased but remains stubbornly high above the Fed´s 2 percent ⁵² target due to various factors.⁵³ Normally an inverted yield curve would signal a recession⁵⁴. The current inverted yield curve is the longest in U.S. history⁵⁵. However, with Biden´s domestic accomplishments and large investments in infrastructure, chips and climate-friendly technology, the US economy continues to perform well, and a soft landing appears to be in sight.⁵⁶ There is no prediction that the US will fall into a recession in the next 6 months. The OECD recently predicted a 2.6 percent GDP growth for the US economy in 2024.⁵⁷

If Keys 2 and 3 are both true, only Herbert Hoover in 1932, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Donald Trump in 2020 lost their bids for reelection to the White House. What did they have in common? They all faced an actual or perceived recession in the election year (1932, 1992 and 2020, respectively). The win rate with Keys 2 and 3 being true is 18 out of 21. An even more important side note: When Keys 2, 3 and 5 are all true for the sitting U.S. president, the re-election rate is 100 percent. So if the economy avoids slipping into a (perceived) recession in the next few months, which is very likely⁵⁸, Biden will be in very good shape for his reelection campaign.

Strong Long-term Economy: True

“Key 6 Long-term economy: Real annual per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms⁵⁹.”

Growth since Biden took office has been higher than the average of the last two administrations (2012-2020),⁶⁰ especially since the economy tanked in 2020 during the last year of the Trump administration due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Major Policy Change: True

“Key 7 Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.⁶¹”

Biden may have the greatest domestic accomplishments since Lyndon B. Johnson´s Great Society, Voting Rights Act, Medicare and Medicaid.⁶² Biden successfully passed the American Rescue Plan in 2021⁶³ as a significant stimulus after the Covid-19 pandemic, a bipartisan infrastructure package⁶⁴, the CHIPS and Science Act⁶⁵ to reduce dependence on Taiwanese chip production, and the Inflation reduction Act, the largest investment in transformative technology to combat climate change. Additionally, he capped health care costs and raised taxes on corporations and wealthy investors.⁶⁶

No Social unrest: A Little Wobbly but Still Leaning Toward Biden

“Key 8 Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.”

The first three years of the Biden administration have been remarkably calm with no significant social unrest. In April 2024, pro-Palestinian demonstrators at several universities in the United States threatened the stability of this Key.⁶⁷ However the threshold for this key is quite high. Protests must be sustained and violent to challenge the social order. So far, it has not reached that level, and it is not even close; only a tiny fraction of U.S. universities have seen protests, and only a tiny fraction of the students at those universities have participated.⁶⁸

For historical comparison, the social unrest Key, with its high threshold of sustained national unrest and violence that threatens the social order, rarely turns against the White House party. In modern times, since World War II, the social unrest Key has only turned against the party holding the White House twice (1968 and 2020). Both times involved extraordinary circumstances in U.S. history.

No Scandal: True

“Key 9 Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.”

The Republican Party tried to impeach Biden over allegations that he used his office to enrich himself.⁶⁹ However, this claim completely fell apart when the “star witness“ against Biden lied to the FBI and admitted to having ties to Russian intelligence.⁷⁰ No scandal involving Biden is remotely on the horizon that would lead to impeachment and bipartisan recognition of a scandal.

No Foreign/Military Failure: Shaky but Leaning Toward Biden

“Key 10 Foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.⁷¹”

It could be argued that the withdrawal of US soldiers from Afghanistan was a military failure.⁷² Thirteen U.S. soldiers and many more Afghan civilians died in a suicide attack.⁷³ However, the departure date was set in advance by the Trump administration, withdrawals are always messy, and the majority of the U.S. public was happy with the U.S. military leaving Afghanistan.⁷⁴ The press coverage was very critical of the Biden administration at the time.⁷⁵ The threshold for a major military failure is also high. Biden´s net approval rating dropped by 10 percentage points during the withdrawal, but consumer confidence also dropped significantly during this period, so it is not clearly linked to the Afghanistan withdrawal. The withdrawal is not playing a major role in the campaign so far; even Trump only brings it up occasionally.⁷⁶

So far, the Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th, including the taking of hostages, are not considered military failures for Biden. The majority of U.S. Americans support Biden´s stance on Ukraine⁷⁷ and Israel.⁷⁸ Biden also appears to be trying to convince Netanjahu to limit military force in Rafah,⁷⁹ as Democrats want him to be tougher on Israel.⁸⁰ Since the United States Congress recently passed $95 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan⁸¹, it seems unlikely that the military situation in Ukraine, Israel, or the Pacific will turn into a military disaster that hurts Biden´s re-election bid.

In conclusion, there has been no major military failure for the Biden administration that would rise to the threshold (yet).

Major Foreign/Military Success: Leaning Against Biden

“Key 11 Foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.”⁸²

Joe Biden has led an international coalition of nearly 50 nations⁸³ to support Ukraine against Russia´s unprovoked and illegal war of aggression. In a major victory for the transatlantic alliance, Sweden, which has been neutral for more than 200 years, and Finland have joined the NATO.

For the most part, Ukraine has held the line against Russia´s invasion, achieving significant battlefield successes in 2022. Russia, the greatest geopolitical competitor of the U.S. for the last 79 years has lost 95 percent of its professional army⁸⁴ and more than 50 percent of its armored stock.⁸⁵ In this regard, Biden is successful because he took the lead in supporting Ukraine.

However, at this point, the United States’ support for Ukraine and Ukrainian battlefield victories do to not constitute a major military success for Biden because the war is still ongoing and there is no end in sight. Only a major advance by Ukrainian troops before the 2024 presidential election (which is highly unlikely) would be considered a foreign policy/military success for Biden.⁸⁶

Charismatic Incumbent: False

“Key 12 Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.⁸⁷”

Biden is a decent and empathetic man⁸⁸ with an inspiring life story of grit, perseverance, and resilience against tremendous personal loss. However, he is not a great orator⁸⁹ or exceptionally charismatic, and that will not change until the election. This Key has irreversibly turned false. But this is the key with the lowest loss rate, with only 46 percent loss probability.⁹⁰

Uncharismatic Challenger: True

“Key 13 Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.⁹¹”

Donald Trump has a loyal following in his base.⁹² His base will not budge.⁹³ However, he is charismatic only to his base⁹⁴ and does not appeal to a broad swath of the electorate, unlike Barack Obama in 2008, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984, or John F. Kennedy in 1960.

What about Events Outside of the Keys?

What about forces outside of the Keys: What about 91 felony indictments against Trump? What about the unprecedented nature of the campaign in modern times, with a rematch between a sitting president and a former president? What about AI?⁹⁵ What about Russian⁹⁶ and/or Chinese election interference?⁹⁷

The 13 Keys date back to the horse and buggy days of 1860 and form a very robust system. The unprecedented felony charges against Trump may hurt him (if he is convicted), but it is unclear how and when the further legal proceedings will take place and whether Trump will be convicted or acquitted. So, it is very unclear at this point how the charges will affect the election. We don´t know how successful Russian and Chinese election meddling will be⁹⁸ or if it will have any significant impact at all. The same goes for AI and the unprecedented (in modern times) rematch of a sitting president against a former president. So, I fully stand by Lichtman´s 13 Keys to the White House.

Preliminary Key Forecast, best guess: three Keys will be negative against Biden in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Key 1, Key 11 and Key 12).

In terms of keys, the 2024 election could mirror the 1964 election with Lyndon B. Johnson, when Johnson lost Key 1, Key 11 and Key 12 or the 2012 election⁹⁹ with Obama loosing Key 1, Key 6 and Key 12. Of course, this does not mean that the Electoral College (or popular vote) differential will be similar¹⁰⁰; it means that Biden will be re-elected President and Trump will lose fair and square.

Comparison with the 2012 Obama Presidential Re-Election Campaign

The most apt comparison would probably be the 2012 re-election of Barack Obama, a sitting Democratic president with a united party behind him and a domestic policy accomplishment (the Affordable Care Act¹⁰¹, better known as “Obamacare”). Obama lost the 2010 midterm elections (which he referred to as an election “shellacking”¹⁰²) and thus Key 1. Obama also lost the incumbent charisma Key, failing to maintain the magic of his 2008 campaign.¹⁰³ So, Keys 1 and 12 are exactly the same in the 2012 and 2024 elections.

Obama lost Key 6 (long-term economic Key) during the Great Recession, with a loss prediction rate of 59 percent, and Biden (probably) will lose Key 11 (foreign/military success) a Key with a loss prediction rate of 61 percent.¹⁰⁴ So in terms of the Keys, their win and loss rates, and the fact, that an incumbent Democratic president has been up for reelection in the modern era, the 2012 re-election probably comes closest. Back then, challenger Mitt Romney led in some of the polls for quite a while in the spring and summer of 2012,¹⁰⁵ and the Democrats were in pretty much meltdown mode¹⁰⁶, just as they have been in late 2023.¹⁰⁷ Obama went on to win the 2012 presidential election quite handily, with a 3.9 popular vote margin and, most importantly, a 332 to 206 Electoral College advantage.¹⁰⁸

Side note: What About the GOP Electoral College Advantage?

As a side note, the GOP Electoral College “advantage” may be shrinking¹⁰⁹ so that even if Biden “only” wins the popular vote with 2,5-4 percent, he will eke out an Electoral College victory that puts him back in the White House. In 2020 Biden won the popular vote by just over 7 million¹¹⁰ votes (5 million in California and 2 million in New York).¹¹¹ Nearly 160 million voters cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential election, but if Biden had lost a combined 43,000 votes in the three closest states, Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, Trump would have been re-elected as president.¹¹² This shows how large the Electoral College advantage for the GOP was in 2020, the largest since the 1948 presidential election.¹¹³

Decisive Electoral College States in 2024

The main campaign will take place in only seven states: the three Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin¹¹⁴; Nevada;¹¹⁵ and the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia¹¹⁶ (which Biden won in 2020), and North Carolina¹¹⁷, which Obama won in 2008¹¹⁸ and could be up for grabs for Biden in 2024.¹¹⁹

The bottom line: Biden is in the Driver´s Seat

In conclusion, Allan Lichtman´s 13 Keys to the White House indicate that President Biden remains in the driver´s seat for his 2024 re-election bid and will very likely be inaugurated as the next President of the United States of America on January 20, 2025.

Recommendation: Allan Lichtman´s Book and YouTube Channel

Finally, I highly recommend Allan Lichtman´s book, “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House, 2024”, which will be published on July 1, 2024.¹²⁰ In his weekly live talks on YouTube, his son Sam interviews him, and viewers can ask questions.¹²¹ The discussions are very insightful, informative, entertaining, and funny, providing not only commentary on the 13 Keys, but also with a unique perspective on current and historical events in US (presidential) politics.

About the Author:

Björn-Michael Lange is a partner at Vy Rechtsanwälte. His practice covers finance, capital markets, labor, litigation and corporate law.

Responsible Editor:

Isabel Cagala, TLB Co-Editor-in-Chief